FOMC Today and SBF to Jail 👮🏽‍♀️⛓️

SBF update

SBF gets arrested a day before his congressional hearing after prosecutors in the United States filed charges. He was taken in by the Bahamian police and put in the fox hill prison. Here’s a picture of what it looks like below.

From Million dollar mansion to jail

During the congressional hearing, FTX restructuring CEO Jay Ray III said – FTX, a multi-billion dollar company, used QuickBooks to do their accounting. Now mind you Quickbooks is used by small businesses like your local Joe’s Pizza, not 20 Billion corporations. When asked by congress, do you think this could’ve been a mistake? He replied… no. It is not looking good for SBF.

Charges filed:

  • Wire Fraud
  • Money Laundering
  • Violation of Political Campaign + 5 others

FOMC Meeting

2 PM EST The Fed will raise interest rates by 50 – 75 bp.

  • The likely scenario is they raise rates by 50 bp
  • 80% chance after yesterday’s low CPI inflation print

2:30 PM EST Powell press conference and guidance for 2023.

  • If we get a relatively dovish statement or Powell acknowledges inflation looks to be fading, then we could see this rally sustained into the EOY for crypto and equities.
  • The market and the Fed are projecting their terminal (target) rate to be around 4.75% – 5%, which means 1 or 2 more rate hikes for 2023.
  • I expect CPI and inflation to be less important going into next year and the transition to focusing on unemployment and company earnings growth.
  • December Santa rally if dovish Powell!
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